IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v68y1995i1p99-119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?

Author

Listed:
  • Aggarwal, Raj
  • Mohanty, Sunil
  • Song, Frank

Abstract

This article examines the rationality of forecasts of 11 macroeconomic variables. Among the nonstationary series, only surveys of housing starts, the unemployment rate, and the trade balance are rational forecasts. Among the stationary series, survey forecasts for only consumer prices and personal income are consistent with rational expectations. Lack of rationality in forecasts of durable goods, industrial production, leading indicators, money supply, and retail sales suggests that such forecasts do not fully exploit public information. Indeed, survey forecasts for industrial production and retail sales can be improved significantly with past information. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:1:p:99-119
    DOI: 10.1086/296655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/296655
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/296655?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:1:p:99-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.jstor.org/journal/jbusiness .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.