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Portfolio advice of a multifactor world

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

Asset returns, it turns out, do not follow the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and are somewhat predictable over time. I survey and interpret the large body of recent work that adapts traditional portfolio theory to answer, what should an investor do about these new facts in finance? I survey the extension of the famous 2 - fund' theorem to an N-fund'' theorem in which investors either hedge or assume the additional, non-market, sources of priced risk; I survey the burgeoning literature on time-varying portfolio rules and the Bayesian literature that advocates a great deal of caution. In a survey, I emphasize the risk-sharing nature of asset markets, I note the likelihood that many supposed anomalies will not last, and I emphasize the fact that the average investor must hold the market so portfolio decisions must be driven by differences between an investor and the average investor.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/1999/ep3Q99_4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 59-78
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1999:i:qiii:p:59-78:n:v.23no.3

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Related research

Keywords: Mutual funds ; Capital assets pricing model;

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References

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  1. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  3. John H Cochrane, 2003. "Where is the Market Going: Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000762, David K. Levine.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," NBER Working Papers 5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
  6. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  10. Michael W. Brandt, 1999. "Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1609-1645, October.
  11. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  12. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  14. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  15. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-61.
  16. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
  17. Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296.
  18. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  19. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Financial advice & journalism
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2010-09-20 16:50:35
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
  1. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  2. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  3. Taras Bodnar & Wolfgang Schmid, 2008. "A test for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio in an elliptical model," Metrika, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 127-143, March.
  4. Michael E. Drew & Tony Naughton & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2003. "Asset Pricing in China: Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 128, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  5. repec:wop:ubisop:0008 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Taras Bodnar & Wolfgang Schmid & Taras Zabolotskyy, 2009. "Statistical inference of the efficient frontier for dependent asset returns," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 593-604, June.
  7. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
  8. Eberts, Elke, 2003. "The Connection of Stock Markets Between Germany and the USA: New Evidence From a Co-integration Study," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-36, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & H. L. Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 06/136, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2008. "Intertemporal Asset Allocation with Habit Formation in Preferences: An Approximate Analytical Solution," CREATES Research Papers 2008-60, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  11. repec:cdl:anderf:2863 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. James Dow, 2009. "Age, investing horizon and asset allocation," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 422-436, October.
  13. J. Annaert & W. Van Hyfte, 2006. "Long-Horizon Mean Reversion for the Brussels Stock Exchange: Evidence for the 19th Century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/376, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  14. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Lorenzo Cappiello & Stéphane Guéné, 2005. "Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany," Working Paper Series 436, European Central Bank.
  16. Guillard, Michel & Sosa Navarro, Ramiro, 2009. "Fiscal Imbalances, Inflation and Sovereign Default Dynamics," MPRA Paper 24075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Gianni Amisano & Roberto Savona, 2008. "Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk," Working Paper Series 881, European Central Bank.

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