Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

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Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

Author Info

Backus, David K
Gregory, Allan W
Telmer, Chris I

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Abstract

Forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure (the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution). Representative agent theory with time-additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties. The authors show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent's preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data--in particular, the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1887-1908
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:5:p:1887-1908

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Paper
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1990. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 792, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

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- Hollifield, B. & Yaron, A., 1999. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 1999-17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
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