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Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

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Author Info
 Backus, David K
Gregory, Allan W
Telmer, Chris I

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Abstract

Forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure (the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution). Representative agent theory with time-additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties. The authors show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent's preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data--in particular, the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1887-1908
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:5:p:1887-1908

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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. James M. Nason, 1991. "The permanent income hypothesis when the bliss point is stochastic," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2007. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_6, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Luca Benati, . "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hollifield, Burton & Yaron, Amir, 2001. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," Working Papers 01-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  6. Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1992. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "New Evidence on the Forward Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 77, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Soderlind & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1992. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  11. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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