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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot.

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Abstract

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Economics Working Papers with number 91-158.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1991
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbwp:91-158

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data," International Finance Discussion Papers 281, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1987. "The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 2395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bruce Kasman & Charles Pigott, 1988. "Interest rate divergences among the major industrial nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Fall, pages 28-44.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kees G. Koedijk & Mack Ott, 1987. "Risk aversion, efficient markets and the forward exchange rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 5-13. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: evidence from survey data," International Finance Discussion Papers 292, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Paul R. Krugman, 1985. "Is the strong dollar sustainable?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 103-155.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Deep Insights from a New Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 624, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard K. Lyons, 1991. "Private Beliefs and Information Externalities in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Econometrics 9502001, EconWPA, revised 09 Aug 1995. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Tro Kortian, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of Recent Theoretical Literature," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9501, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vipul Bhatt & Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Global integration of India's Money Market : Interest rate parity in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 164, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  10. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Sophie Larribeau & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Models of Exchange Rate Expectations : Heterogeneous Evidence From Panel Data," Working Papers 1999-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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