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Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data

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Jeffrey A. Frankel
Kenneth A. Froot

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Abstract

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2216.

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Date of creation: Sep 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2216

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. John F. O. Bilson, 1981. "Profitability and Stability in International Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 0664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Manuel H. Johnson & Bonnie E. Loopesko, 1986. "The yen-dollar relationship: a recent historical perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 288, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Imad A. Moosa & Abul Shamsuddin, 2004. "Expectation formation mechanisms, profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1599-1606, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996. "How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," NBER Working Papers 5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1109, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility without the contrivance of fundamentals and the failure of PPP," Research Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giulio Cifarelli, 1995. "Fundamentals, regime shifts, and dollar behavior in the 1980s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 29-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Christian Pierdzioch, 2003. "Noise Trading and the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Nominal and Real Exchange Rates," Kiel Working Papers 1140, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-321, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Fabio Canova & Takatoshi Ito, 1991. "On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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