On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations
AbstractThis paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations move "too much" by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property weaker than rationality. We use ex- change rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds. The data show that a current, positive exchange rate shock leads agents to expect a higher long-run future spot rate when iterating forward their short-term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run. In this sense short-horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 8 (1989)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Other versions of this item:
- Kenneth A. Froot & Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "On the Consistency of Short-run and Long-run Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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