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Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies

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  • Jeffrey Frankel
  • Menzie Chinn

Abstract

Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that changes in expected depreciation are quantitatively significant. However we also find evidence, in contrast to earlier studies involving only four or five major currencies, that variation in the risk premium constitutes a large part of variation in the forward discount as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3806.

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Date of creation: Aug 1991
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Publication status: published as Review of International Economics, 1: no. 2, June 1993, 136-144
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3806

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1983. "An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 1180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
  6. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot., 1991. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley 91-158, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  9. A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989. "Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 20-32.
  10. Baillie,Richard T. & McMahon,Patrick C., 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Market," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521396905, 9.
  11. Fischer, Andreas M, 1989. "Unit Roots and Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 451-63, November.
  12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  13. A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989. "Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets," Research Paper 8918, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Dokko, Yoon & Edelstein, Robert H, 1989. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 865-71, September.
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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