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Exchange Rate Survey Data: A Disaggregated G-7 Perspective

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  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

In this paper, some standard propositions pertaining to the formulation of foreign exchange market expectations are examined using a new survey database. The database has two novel features over such data used by other researchers. In particular, it consists of disaggregated survey responses for three key currencies conducted simultaneously in the G-7 countries. It is demonstrated, inter alia, that there are important intracountry and intercountry differences with respect to individual forecasting performances. This result indicates a substantial degree of suboptimal information processing. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.

Volume (Year): 60 (1992)
Issue (Month): 0 (Supplement, June)
Pages: 47-62

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:60:y:1992:i:0:p:47-62

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Cited by:
  1. Ian W. Marsh & Ronald MacDonald, 1996. "Hétérogénéité des prévisionnistes : une exploration des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 109-115.
  2. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  3. Michael Schröder & Robert Dornau, 2000. "Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-14, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  4. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  5. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "The impact of central bank intervention on exchange-rate forecast heterogeneity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 38-63, March.
  6. A. Bénassy-Quéré & S. Larribeau & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Models of exchange rate expectations : heterogeneous evidence from Panel data," THEMA Working Papers 99-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  7. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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