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Unit Roots and Survey Data

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  • Fischer, Andreas M

Abstract

Several necessary conditions regarding the order of integration are stated for survey data, which optimally forecast variables with unit roots. The necessary conditions can be easily tested within the cointegration framework, and have applications for modeling the expectations structure. If the survey data is rational, adaptive influences must enter the expectations structure through the error correction mechanism. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Andreas M, 1989. "Unit Roots and Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 451-463, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:51:y:1989:i:4:p:451-63
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    4. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October.
    6. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
    7. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    8. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    9. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 1998. "On the 'restricted cointegration test' as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 269-278, February.
    10. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    11. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
    12. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
    13. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    14. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
    16. Peter C. Liu, 1994. "Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 475-483, November.
    17. Andreas Fischer, 1989. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Weekly Money Announcements," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(I), pages 43-53, March.
    18. G. C. Lim & C. R. McKenzie, 1998. "Testing the rationality of expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market using survey data with missing observations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-190.

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