Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector
AbstractThe rational expectations hypothesis (REH) serves as an appealing mechanism in forming expectations compared to that of extrapolative or adaptive frameworks because of its consistency with the basic principles of maximizing behavior. This argument is particularly true as the basic idea of REH maintains that expectations in an uncertain world are formed under assumptions where no systematic errors and information are fully utilized. However, empirical findings from the present study showed diverse evidence of rationality in business operational forecasts formed by Malaysian agriculture firms, as capital expenditure expectations were found to be irrational but gross revenue expectations were supportive of the REH proposition. This implies that the survey of business forecasts may not work well in reflecting the true business outlook, specifically in value-related operational forecasts, which in turn would directly influence investment decisions as well as the capital budgeting process.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36661.
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research 4.45(2011): pp. 169-180
Rational Expectations Hypothesis; Unbiasedness Test; Non-serial Correlation Test; Weak-form Efficiency Test;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
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