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The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations

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  • Michael W. M. Roos
  • Ulrich Schmidt

Abstract

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 13 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 196-210

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:196-210

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Cited by:
  1. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
  2. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 37399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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