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Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia

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  • Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun
  • Puah, Chin-Hong
  • Md Isa, Abu Hassan

Abstract

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) states that the actual outcome will be identical to the optimal forecast when all obtainable information had been utilized in forming the expectations. This study intends to empirically examine the existence of rational behavior in the banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia from the perspective of how the decision-makers formed their gross revenue (GR) and capital expenditure (CE) forecasts. Survey data provided by the Business Expectations Survey of Limited Companies was utilized to conduct a series of rationality tests including unbiasedness, non-serially correlated and efficiency tests. Empirical evidence shows that GR is unbiased, serially uncorrelated and efficient, nevertheless, CE fails to pass any of the tests. Therefore, GR is deemed as a rational predictor to the actual value but not in the case of CE.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36657.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36657

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Keywords: Rational Expectations; Financial Sector; Gross Revenue; Capital Expenditure;

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  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Puah, Chin-Hong & Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Jais, Mohamad, 2011. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. W A Razzak, 1997. "Testing the rationality of the National Bank of New Zealand's survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey," Munich Reprints in Economics 19416, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. E. Douglas Beach & Jorge Fernandez-Cornej & Noel D. Uri, 1995. "Testing the rational expectations hypothesis using survey data from vegetable growers in the USA," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 22(6), pages 46-59, October.
  7. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
  8. G. C. Lim & C. R. McKenzie, 1998. "Testing the rationality of expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market using survey data with missing observations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-190.
  9. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2009. "The role of beliefs in inference for rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 322-331, June.
  10. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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