Tests of rational expectations in a stark setting
AbstractThe authors test the hypothesis that subjects' forecasts in a stark experimental setting are not predictably different than the actual process generating the data. The particular process that they use is a random walk. Forty subjects predict realizations of random walks chosen to be consistent with the actual process generating the data. The authors find that they cannot predict subjects' deviations from rational expectations of the process actually generating the data for about half of the subjects. The authors cannot predict the forecast errors of about 90 percent of the subjects with information actually available to them. Coauthors are Arlington W. Williams, Raymond C. Battalio, and Timothy I. Mason. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1989-001.
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economic Journal, May 1993, 103(418), pp. 586-601
Other versions of this item:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Xiao Xiaohong) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Xiao Xiaohong to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.