Are economic forecasts rational?
AbstractThis paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters' prediction errors are predictable. After addressing what data and methods can be used for testing rationality, the paper presents tests of the price-forecast rationality of individual professional forecasters. Unlike results of previous studies, the test results show that those forecasters' price predictions appear to be rational.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.
Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): Spr ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1974.
"Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy,"
29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
- Cukierman, Alex, 1986. "Measuring inflationary expectations: A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 315-324, March.
- Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August.
- Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
- Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 447-56, November.
- Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-73, May.
- Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April.
- Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
- David E. Runkle, 1989. "The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 19-26.
- Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman Swanson, 2008.
"Information in the revision process of real-time datasets,"
08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
- Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201107, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- James M. Hvidding, 1991. "Do Households Misperceive the Price Level? Some Evidence from Survey Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 72-74, Jan-Mar.
- David E. Runkle, 1990. "Bad news from a forecasting model of the U.S. economy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-10.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.