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Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality

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Author Info
Yash P. Mehra
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File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2002/summer/pdf/mehra.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Quarterly.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Sum ()
Pages: 17-36
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2002:i:sum:p:17-36

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Consumer price indexes;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 26-33. [Downloadable!]
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Norman R. Swanson & Jeffery D. Amato, 2000. "The real-time predictive content of money for output," BIS Working Papers 96, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
  7. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael F. Bryan & Stefan Palmqvist, 2005. "Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data," Working Paper 0502, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefan Palmqvist & Michael F. Bryan, 2005. "Testing Near-Rationality Using Detail Survey Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 371, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bryan, Michael F. & Palmqvist, Stefan, 2005. "Testing Near-Rationality using Detailed Survey Data," Working Paper Series 183, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  5. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dong Fu, 2007. "Inflation expectations, real interest rate and risk premiums -- evidence from bond market and consumer survey data," Working Papers 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Macroeconomics 0501002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kim , Insu & Kim, Minsoo, 2009. "Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 16447, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
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