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The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely

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  • David E. Runkle
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    Abstract

    This paper reports an optimistic forecast of U.S. output and inflation trends in 1990_91. Generated by a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model of the U.S. economy using data available on November 30, 1989, the forecast is more optimistic than a consensus forecast. The key to the model's greater optimism for real growth is its outlook for strong consumer spending. The model's optimism is defended by examining historical precedents as well as comparing the track records of the model and consensus forecasts. The model's measures of forecast uncertainty, however, suggest that its predictions should be taken cautiously. An appendix explains how the model can be used to generate conditional forecasts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

    Volume (Year): (1989)
    Issue (Month): Fall ()
    Pages: 19-26

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:fall:p:19-26:n:v.13no.4

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic conditions - United States ; Forecasting ; Business forecasting;

    References

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    1. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    2. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1987. "The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique," Staff Report 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 26-33.
    5. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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