Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut
AbstractWe develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 1995-05.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in Journal of Forecasting, December 1996
Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
More information through EDIRC
coincident index; leading index; VAR and BVAR forecasts;
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