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Forecasts of market shares from VAR and BVAR models: a comparison of their accuracy

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  • Ribeiro Ramos, Francisco Fernando
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 95-110

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:19:y:2003:i:1:p:95-110

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
    2. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "A Statistical Approach to Economic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, January.
    4. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
    5. P. Leone, Robert, 1987. "Forecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance: An intervention time-series approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 463-478.
    6. Heuts, R. M. J. & Bronckers, J. H. J. M., 1988. "Forecasting the Dutch heavy truck market : A multivariate approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 57-79.
    7. Caines, P. E. & Keng, C. W. & Sethi, S. P., 1981. "Causality analysis and multivariate Autoregressive modelling with an application to supermarket sales analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 267-298, November.
    8. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D., 1995. "The persistence of marketing effects on sales," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358916, Tilburg University.
    10. Brodie, Roderick J. & Bonfrer, Andre, 1994. "Conditions when market share models are useful for forecasting: further empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 277-285, September.
    11. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "The Persistence of Marketing Effects on Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    12. Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1989. "The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 399-408.
    13. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
    14. Tiao, George C & Tsay, Ruey S, 1983. "Multiple Time Series Modeling and Extended Sample Cross-Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-56, January.
    15. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    18. Danaher, Peter J. & Brodie, Roderick J., 1992. "Predictive accuracy of simple versus complex econometric market share models: Theoretical and empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 613-626, December.
    19. Kumar, V. & Leone, Robert P. & Gaskins, John N., 1995. "Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 361-377, September.
    20. Spencer, David E., 1993. "Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-421, November.
    21. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    22. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
    23. Moriarty, Mark M., 1985. "Transfer function analysis of the relationship between advertising and sales: A synthesis of prior research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 247-257, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    2. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2012. "A latent variable approach to forecasting the unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 229-244, 04.
    3. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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