This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Pami Dua (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York)
Nishita Raje (Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, Reserve Bank of India)
Satyananda Sahoo (Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, Reserve Bank of India)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The study develops univariate (ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH) and multivariate models (VAR, VECM and Bayesian VAR) to forecast short- and long-term rates, viz., call money rate, 15-91 days Treasury Bill rates and interest rates on Government securities with (residual) maturities of one year, five years and ten years. Multivariate models consider factors such as liquidity, Bank Rate, repo rate, yield spread, inflation, credit, foreign interest rates and forward premium. The study finds that multivariate models generally outperform univariate ones over longer forecast horizons. Overall, the study concludes that the forecasting performance of Bayesian VAR models is satisfactory for most interest rates and their superiority in performance is marked at longer forecast horizons.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cdedse.org/pdf/occpap3.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Occasional papers with number 3.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 84 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:occpap:3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Delhi 110 007
Phone: (011) 27667005
Fax: (011) 27667159
Email:
Web page: http://www.cdedse.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.cdedse.org/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Vinayan. K.P).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bidarkota, Prasad V., 1998. "The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 457-468, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blejer, Mario I & Diaz, Jose Gil, 1986. "Domestic and External Factors in the Determination of the Real Interest Rate: The Case of Uruguay," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(3), pages 589-606, April.
  3. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  4. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Other versions:
  5. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesando, James E., 1981. "On forecasting interest rates : An efficient markets perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-318. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barkoulas, John T & Baum, Christopher F, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-72, Fall.
    Other versions:
  9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  10. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Holden, K & Thompson, J L, 1996. "Forecasting Interest Rates from Financial Futures Markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 449-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gosnell, Thomas F & Kolb, Robert W, 1997. "Accuracy of International Interest Rate Forecasts," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 431-48, August.
  13. Artis, M. J. & Zhang, W., 1990. "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 349-362, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Dua, Pami & Miller, Stephen M & Smyth, David J, 1999. "Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-205, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  21. Holden, K. & Broomhead, A., 1990. "An examination of vector autoregressive forecasts for the U.K. economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-23. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Adrian W. Throop, 1981. "Interest rate forecasts and market efficiency," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 29-43. [Downloadable!]
  25. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Dua, Pami, 1988. "Multiperiod Forecasts of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 381-84, July.
  27. Dua, Pami & Pandit, B. L., 2002. "Interest rate determination in India: domestic and external factors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 853-875, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Sarantis, Nicholas & Lin, Sharon X, 1999. "The Role of Financial Spreads in Macroeconomic Forecasting: Evidence for the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(1), pages 89-110, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Dua, Pami & Miller, Stephen M, 1996. "Forecasting Connecticut Home Sales in a BVAR Framework Using Coincident and Leading Indexes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-35, November.
  30. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E & MacDonald, S Scott, 1992. "Market and Survey Forecasts of the Three-Month Treasury-Bill Rate," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 123-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  34. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Richard Deaves, 1996. "Forecasting Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 615-34, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can include your works in the database easily by uploading them on the Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) if you do not have access to an institutional RePEc archive.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.