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Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Rybacki

    (Polish Economic Institute; University of Warsaw)

  • Michał Gniazdowski

    (Independent author)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the forecast errors of Polish professional forecasters under the external shock of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020-based on the Parkiet competition. This analysis shows that after the initial disruption related to the imposed lockdown in March and April, commercial economists were able to lower their forecasts errors of the industrial production and retail sales. On the other hand, a far worse performance has been seen in the case of the market variable; either the size of errors or the disagreement were elevated throughout the whole of 2020. Furthermore, long- -term forecasts that were produced during the first year of the pandemic have been characterized with visible inconsistencies, i.e. forecasts of economic growth were similar when forecasters either assumed a strong increase in unemployment or when they did not. Economists made the biggest error in case of labour market forecasting. This phenomenon is likely related to the scarcity of information in the public statistics. Such problems are likely to repeat in the case of other external shocks, i.e. the forthcoming energy crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:53:y:2023:i:1:p:45-64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP forecasting; labour market forecasts; COVID-19; forecasts’ accuracy; forecasts’ consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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