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Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Teng, Bin
  • Wang, Sicong
  • Shi, Yufeng
  • Sun, Yunchuan
  • Wang, Wei
  • Hu, Wentao
  • Shi, Chaojun

Abstract

This paper proposes a joint model by combining the time-varying coefficient susceptible-infected-removal model with the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression model. This model establishes the relationship between several critical macroeconomic variables and pandemic transmission states and performs economic predictions under two predefined pandemic scenarios. The empirical part of the model predicts the economic recovery of several countries severely affected by COVID-19 (e.g., the United States and India, among others). Under the proposed pandemic scenarios, economies tend to recover rather than fall into prolonged recessions. The economy recovers faster in the scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled.

Suggested Citation

  • Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:110:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000670
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105821
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sergey Mikhailovich Vasin, 2022. "Comparative Analysis of Socioeconomic Models in COVID-19 Pandemic," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Han, Yang, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's economic structure: An input–output approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 181-195.
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    6. Courtioux, Pierre & Métivier, François & Rebérioux, Antoine, 2022. "Nations ranking in scientific competition: Countries get what they paid for," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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