Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing
AbstractThis paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of England which started in March 2009. Although Bank Rate, the UK policy rate, was reduced to Â½%, effectively its lower bound, the Bankâs Monetary Policy Committee felt that additional measures were necessary to meet the inflation target in the medium term. The policy of QE entailed buying private and mainly public assets in large quantities using central bank money, with the aim of injecting money into the economy and boosting nominal spending, in order to help achieve the Bankâs inflation target. Over the period from March 2009 to January 2010, the Bank of England purchased Â£200 billion of assets, mainly consisting of government securities. We attempt to quantify the effects of these purchases by focusing on the impact of lower long-term interest rates on the wider economy. This is motivated by empirical evidence indicating that QE purchases reduced long-term UK government bond yields by about 100 basis points. Other transmission channels are also possible, but are not considered in this paper. We use three different models to conduct counterfactual simulations to estimate the impact of QE on output and inflation: a large Bayesian VAR; a change-point structural VAR; and a time-varying parameter VAR. Our preferred average estimates from the three models suggest that QE may have had a peak effect on the level of real GDP of around 1Â½% and a peak effect on annual CPI inflation of about 1Â¼ percentage points. These estimates are shown to vary considerably across the different model specifications, and with the precise assumptions made to generate the counterfactual simulations, and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 122 (2012)
Issue (Month): 564 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008.
"Large Bayesian VARs,"
Working Papers ECARES
2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 0966, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric T. Swanson, 2011.
"Let’s twist again: a high-frequency event-study analysis of operation twist and its implications for QE2,"
Working Paper Series
2011-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
- Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," 2011 Meeting Papers 982, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010.
"Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 662, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- A. Carriero & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/17, European University Institute.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2009.
"Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-17, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Staff Reports 404, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Nowak, Sylwia & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2012.
"Market response to policy initiatives during the global financial crisis,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 162-177.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jochen Andritzky & Andreas Jobst & Sylwia Nowak & Natalia Tamirisa, 2010. "Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004.
"Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium,"
2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
- Lawrence Christiano & Daisuke Ikeda, 2011. "Government Policy, Credit Markets and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 17142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takeshi Kimura & David Small, 2004.
"Quantitative monetary easing and risk in financial asset markets,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2004-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kimura Takeshi & Small David H., 2006. "Quantitative Monetary Easing and Risk in Financial Asset Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-54, March.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011.
"Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?,"
Working Paper Series
2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
- Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bridges, Jonathan & Thomas, Ryland, 2012. "The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic," Bank of England working papers 442, Bank of England.
- Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
- Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012.
"Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
- Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Judit Krekó & Csaba Balogh & Kristóf Lehmann & Róbert Mátrai & György Pulai & Balázs Vonnák, 2013. "International experiences and domestic opportunities of applying unconventional monetary policy tools," MNB Occasional Papers 2013/100, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012.
"Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?,"
University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, 09.
- David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1206, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
- Joyce, Michael, 2012. "Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies: Bank of England conference summary," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 48-56.
- Schüder, Stefan, 2012.
"Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in a Portfolio Model with Endogenous Asset Supply,"
Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century
65402, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Schüder, Stefan, 2011. "Monetary policy trade-offs in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," MPRA Paper 32019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012.
"Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing,"
Working Paper Series
37_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron P., 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," IZA Discussion Papers 6618, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," CESifo Working Paper Series 3879, CESifo Group Munich.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012.
"The macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs,"
Working Paper Series
2012-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F289-F315, November.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs," Staff Reports 527, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Vasco Curdia & Andrea Ferrero & Han Chen, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs," 2012 Meeting Papers 372, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F271-F288, November.
- Timothy Sharpe & Martin Watts, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the UK: A Modern Money Critique," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 41-64, September.
- Matteo Falagiarda & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Announcements of ECB Unconventional Programs: Implications for the Sovereign Risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Kristóf Lehmann, 2012. "International experiences with unconventional central bank instruments," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 7(2), pages 24-30, June.
- Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2012. "Quantitative easing : a sceptical survey. Vol. 02-12," Department of Economics Working Papers 32987, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.