The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach
AbstractIn this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons simultaneously. It is shown how the pooled approach needs to be adjusted in order to accommodate the forecasting scheme of the Consensus Forecasts. Furthermore, the pooled approach is extended by a sequential test with the purpose of detecting the critical horizon after which the forecast should be regarded as biased. Moreover, heteroscedasticity in the form of year-specific variances of macroeconomic shocks is taken into account. The results show that in the analyzed period which was characterized by pronounced macroeconomic shocks, several countries show biased forecasts, especially with forecasts covering more than 12 months. In addition, information efficiency has to be rejected in almost all cases. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 07-058.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
business cycle forecasting; forecast evaluation; Consensus Forecasts;
Other versions of this item:
- Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-12-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2007-12-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-12-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-12-15 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001.
"Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets,"
Econometrics Working Papers Archive
wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006.
"How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys,"
06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1985.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Isiklar, Gultekin, 2005.
"On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests,"
Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 312-316, December.
- Gultekin Isiklar, 2004. "On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests," Econometrics 0412011, EconWPA, revised 27 Dec 2004.
- Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Roy Batchelor, 2001. "How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 225-235.
- Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
- Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
- Loungani, Prakash, 2001.
"How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
- Prakash Loungani, 2000. "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006.
"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys,"
22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
- Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.