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FORECASTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on Survey Data

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  • Muzafar Shah HABIBULLAH*

Abstract

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the hypothesis of how expectations were formed by economic agents. More recently, many applied studies have tried to test the implications of rational expectations hypo thesis-on survey data. This paper provides empirical evidence on the rationality of survey data of agricultural firms' economic forecasts on gross revenue, capital expenditure and employment. The results of this paper indicate that agricultural firms’ forecasts do not violate the statistical properties of unbiasedness, efficiency or orthogonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Muzafar Shah HABIBULLAH*, 1997. "FORECASTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on Survey Data," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 13(1), pages 171-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article1997sumiii
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    Cited by:

    1. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Puah, Chin-Hong & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2012. "Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
    4. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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