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Charts, Noise and Fundamentals: A Study of the London Foreign Exchange Market

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Taylor, Mark P

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Abstract

Recent research in financial economics has concentrated on the role of non-economic, or non-fundamentalist, speculators in asset markets. This paper presents some empirical evidence concerning the nature and perceived importance of a major form of non-fundamentalist analysis, chartism, in the London foreign exchange market. It analyzes the results of a questionnaire survey on chartism conducted among chief foreign exchange dealers in the London market and data on a panel of chartists' one-week and four-week-ahead exchange rate predictions. The analysis suggests that a majority of chief dealers use at least some chartist input into their trading decisions, especially at the shorter time horizo.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 341.

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Date of creation: Sep 1989
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:341

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Related research
Keywords: Chartism; Exchange Rates; Forecasting; Foreign Exchange;

Cited by:
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  1. Bertrand Maillet, Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Marco Arnone, 2004. "Teoria dei Processi Imitativi e Applicazioni Economiche," International Finance 0404012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


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