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Switching Between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Probabilistic Approach Using Survey Data

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Author Info

  • Georges Prat

    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université de Paris X - Nanterre)

  • Remzi Uctum

    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université de Paris X - Nanterre)

Abstract

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus Forecasts on six European exchange rates against the US Dollar, we find that the rational expectations hypothesis is rejected at the aggregate level. By implementing a switching regression methodology with stochastic choice of regime, we show that the expectation generating process is given at any time by some combination of the three simple processes. An interpretation of this framework in terms of economically rational expectations is suggested.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00081586.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Publication status: Published, Review of International Economics, 2007, 15, 4, 700-719
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00081586

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00081586/en/
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Related research

Keywords: expectation formation; switching-regime; exchange rates; survey data; cost and advantage analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
  2. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers 2014-235, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  5. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
  7. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.

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