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Switching Between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Probabilistic Approach Using Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Prat

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Remzi Uctum

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus Forecasts on six European exchange rates against the US Dollar, we find that the rational expectations hypothesis is rejected at the aggregate level. By implementing a switching regression methodology with stochastic choice of regime, we show that the expectation generating process is given at any time by some combination of the three simple processes. An interpretation of this framework in terms of economically rational expectations is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Switching Between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Probabilistic Approach Using Survey Data," Post-Print halshs-00081586, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00081586
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00081586
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard E. Quandt, 1992. "The Collected Essays Of Richard E. Quandt," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 363.
    2. François Gardes & Georges Prat (ed.), 2000. "Price Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2016.
    3. Remzi Uctum & Georges Prat, 2000. "The evidence of a mixed expectation generating process in the foreign exchange market," Post-Print halshs-00081614, HAL.
    4. Georges Prat & François Gardes, 2000. "Price expectations in goods and financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00172996, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    2. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    3. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
    4. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
    6. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    7. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04140866, HAL.
    8. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
    9. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," Working Papers hal-04140761, HAL.
    11. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
    12. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    13. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
    14. Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," Working Papers hal-04141409, HAL.

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    Keywords

    expectation formation; switching-regime; exchange rates; survey data; cost and advantage analysis;
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