Switching Between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Probabilistic Approach Using Survey Data
AbstractThis paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus Forecasts on six European exchange rates against the US Dollar, we find that the rational expectations hypothesis is rejected at the aggregate level. By implementing a switching regression methodology with stochastic choice of regime, we show that the expectation generating process is given at any time by some combination of the three simple processes. An interpretation of this framework in terms of economically rational expectations is suggested.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00081586.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Review of International Economics, 2007, 15, 4, 700-719
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00081586/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
expectation formation; switching-regime; exchange rates; survey data; cost and advantage analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Switching between Expectation Processes in the Foreign Exchange Market: a Probabilistic Approach using Survey Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 700-719, 09.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014.
"Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data,"
2014-235, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-17, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
- Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009.
"Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
- Uctum, Remzi, 2007.
"Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse,"
Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, dÃ©cembre.
- Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Econométrie des modèles à changements de régimes: un essai de synthèse," Post-Print halshs-00174034, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.