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Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies

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Author Info

  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Frankel, Jeffrey

Abstract

The properties of exchange-rate forecasts are investigated, with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. Over the entire sample, expectations appear to be biased. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. There appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data: the bias is lower for the high-inflation countries; the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers; and the bias is also greater for the EMS currencies. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 26 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 759-70

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:26:y:1994:i:4:p:759-70

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2002. "Brazil in the 21st century: How to escape the high real interest trap?," Textos para discussão 466, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 102006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan, 2006. "A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-29, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Ravi Balakrishnan & Volodymyr Tulin, 2006. "U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 06/160, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Imad Moosa & Abul Shamsuddin, 2004. "Expectation formation mechanisms, profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1599-1606.
  7. Chinn, Menzie David & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Interest parity at short and long horizons," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  8. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Maria Pericoli & Marco Pistagnesi, 2013. "Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 090, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
  9. repec:pra:mprapa:2257 is not listed on IDEAS

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