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Private Beliefs and Information Externalities in the Foreign Exchange Market

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Richard K. Lyons

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Abstract

An information externality exists in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that traders play two partially conflicting roles: (i) each is a speculator and (ii) each is an information clearinghouse in that each intermediates own-customer orders which convey information. Profit maximization induces traders to underweight fundamental information in making their trades, reducing the degree to which prices reveal information at any given time. In the model, agents update diverse beliefs over time, with transactions-mediated tatonnement. The explicit role for transactions provides a framework for interpreting the relationship between the diversity of beliefs, trading volume, and price adjustment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3889.

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Date of creation: Oct 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3889

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Winkler, Robert L, 1976. "Optimal Speculation against an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 49-61, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Karpoff, Jonathan M, 1986. " A Theory of Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1069-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hal R. Varian, 1986. "Differences of opinion in financial markets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 3-40.
  9. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-30, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hernando Vargas & Rocío Betnacourt, . "Pension Fund Managers Behavior In The Foreign Exchange Market," Borradores de Economia 391, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2001-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hernando Vargas H. & Rocío Betancourt, 2006. "Pension Fund Managers Behavior In The Foreign Exchange Market," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003317, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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