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Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Bronka Rzepkowski
Abstract

An exchange rate model with heterogeneous expectations is developed in which agents are subject to mutual mimetic contagion in their portfolio decisions. Two alternative sources of heterogeneity are tested in order to explain the short-term dynamics of the euro/dollar since January 1999. Information conveyed by over-the- counter currency options allows the time-varying proportions of each category of agents to be inferred, as well as their respective exchange rate expectations and standard deviations. The proportion of optimistic agents in the evolution of the euro and the proportion of confident agents in their exchange rate anticipations induce portfolio reallocations, which generate euro/dollar forecasts.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2001-03.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-03

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Keywords: Contagion; probability density function; heterogeneous expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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