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Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Richard K. Lyons

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Abstract

This paper introduces a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market. In particular, we test for effects of trading volume on quoted prices through the two channels stressed in the literature: the information channel and the inventory-control channel. We find that trades have both a strong information effect and a strong inventory-control effect, providing support for both strands of microstructure theory. The bulk of equity-market studies also find an information effect; however, these studies typically interpret this as evidence of inside information. Since there are no insiders in the foreign exchange market, this finding suggests a broader conception of the information environment, at least in this context.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4471.

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Date of creation: Sep 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4471

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Optimal Transparency in a Dealership Market with an Application to Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 4467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1988. "Trades, quotes, inventories, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles Goodhart, 1990. "News and the Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp71, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lyons, Richard K., 1990. "Whence exchange rate overshooting: Money stock or flow?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 369-384, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1989. "Insider Trading, Liquidity, and the Role of the Monopolist Specialist," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 211-35, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Zabel, Edward, 1981. "Competitive Price Adjustment without Market Clearing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1201-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1989. "Divide and Conquer: A Theory of Intraday and Day-of-the-Week Mean Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 189-223. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 361-376, December. [Downloadable!]
  19. Roell, Ailsa, 1990. "Dual-capacity trading and the quality of the market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 105-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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