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Financial Returns and Efficiency as seen by an Artificial Technical Analyst

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Spyros Skouras (European University Institute)

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Abstract

Previous research has shown that simple trading rules can be useful tools for evaluating financial models. Here we introduce trading rules which are selected by an artificially intelligent agent who learns from experience - an Artificial Technical Analyst. We show that the rules used by this agent can lead to the recognition of subtle regularities in return processes whilst suffering from lesser data-mining problems than other rules commonly used as model evaluation devices. The relationship between the efficiency of financial markets and the efficacy of technical analysis is investigated and it is shown that the Artificial Technical Analyst can be used to provide a quantifiable measure of market efficiency. The measure is applied to the DJIA daily index from 1962 to 1986 and it is shown that a quantification of efficiency based on the profits of an Artificial Technical Analyst can lead to interesting results concerning the behaviour of other investors.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9808001.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 1998
Date of revision: 24 Aug 1998
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9808001

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
G - Financial Economics

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Goldberg, Michael & Schulmeister, Stephen, 1988. "Technical Analysis And Stock Market Efficiency," Working Papers 88-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard B. Olsen & Michel M. Dacorogna & Ulrich A. Muller, & Olivier V. Pictet, . "Going Back to the Basics - Rethinking Market Efficiency," Working Papers 1992-09-07., Olsen and Associates. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marimon, R. & Mcgrattan, E. & Sargent, T.J., 1989. "Money As A Medium Of Exchange In An Economy With Artificially Intelligent Agents," Papers e-89-28, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  6. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Spyros Skouras, . "A Theory of Technical Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 58, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Blake LeBaron, . "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers _007, University of Wisconsin - Madison. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. W. Brian Arthur, 1992. "On Learning and Adaptation in the Economy," Working Papers 854, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  16. Ross, Stephen A, 1987. "The Interrelations of Finance and Economics: Theoretical Perspectives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 29-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Franklin Allen & Risto Karjalainen, . "Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules (Revised: 20-95)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  20. Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  21. Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna & Rakhal D. Dave & Bastien Chopard & Roberto Schirru & Marco Tomassini, . "Genetic Algorithms with collective sharing for Robust Optimization in Financial Applications," Working Papers 1995-02-06., Olsen and Associates. [Downloadable!]
  22. Skouras, S., 1997. "Analysing Technical Analysis," Economics Working Papers eco97/36, European University Institute.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chris Doucouliagos, 2005. "Price exhaustion and number preference: time and price confluence in Australian stock prices," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 207-221, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "The Cost of Technical Trading Rules in the Forex Market: A Utility-based Evaluation," Research Paper ERS-2003-052-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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