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Risk adjusted returns from technical trading: a genetic programming approach

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  • Colin Fyfe
  • John Paul Marney
  • Heather Tarbert
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    Abstract

    In this study, Genetic Programming is used to generate technical trading rules. These are assessed in terms of their basic returns and their risk adjusted returns. It is found that while the basic returns are impressive by comparison with buy and hold, they do not outperform buy and hold after risk-adjustment.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100500306709
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 15 ()
    Pages: 1073-1077

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:15:p:1073-1077

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    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Gerwin Griffioen & Peter Boswijk & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4A.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 1999. "Technical analysis versus market efficiency - a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 183-191.
    4. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    5. Routledge, Bryan R., 2001. "Genetic Algorithm Learning To Choose And Use Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 303-325, April.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Peter Boswijk & Gerwin Griffioen & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Hommes, C.H., . "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    9. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
    10. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2004. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm30, Yale School of Management.
    11. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    13. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
    14. Franklin Allen & Risto Karjalainen, . "Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules (Revised: 20-95)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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