Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions

Contents:

Author Info

  • Shynkevich, Andrei
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This study uses daily return data on 20 portfolios split along two dimensions, growth/value and market size, over the period of four decades and employs over 12,000 trading rules to investigate the short-term predictability of portfolio returns. It shows that, historically, portfolios of small stocks and value stocks have been more suitable for active trading strategies since returns on value portfolios exhibit more predictability than returns on growth portfolios and returns on portfolios of large stocks appear to be less predictive than returns on portfolios of small stocks. The predictive ability of trading rules is all but gone during the 2000s. Popularization of exchange-traded funds and the introduction of quote decimalization on the exchanges are the most likely reasons behind the lack of predictability.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539812000576
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 675-685

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:675-685

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Return predictability; Trading rule; Data snooping;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Trade Execution Costs and Market Quality after Decimalization," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 747-777, December.
    2. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, 02.
    3. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
    4. Nijman, T.E. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-140720, Tilburg University.
    5. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Knez, Peter J & Ready, Mark J, 1997. " On the Robustness of Size and Book-to-Market in Cross-Sectional Regressions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1355-82, September.
    7. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, 02.
    8. Sugato Chakravarty & Robert A. Wood & Robert A. Van Ness, 2004. "Decimals And Liquidity: A Study Of The Nyse," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 75-94.
    9. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    10. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
    11. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
    13. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 2001. "Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Working Papers 17, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
    16. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    17. Bokhari, Jawaad & Cai, Charlie & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2005. "The predictive ability and profitability of technical trading rules: does company size matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 21-27, January.
    18. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
    19. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, 02.
    20. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
    21. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, 08.
    22. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-55, March.
    25. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    26. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
    27. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    28. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Can commodity futures be profitably traded with quantitative market timing strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1810-1819, September.
    29. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2010. "Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-484, June.
    30. Hans R. Stoll, 2006. "Electronic Trading in Stock Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 153-174, Winter.
    31. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    32. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    33. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    34. Chung, Kee H. & Chuwonganant, Chairat & McCormick, D. Timothy, 2004. "Order preferencing and market quality on NASDAQ before and after decimalization," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 581-612, March.
    35. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2005. "Reexamining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with Data Snooping Checks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 606-628.
    36. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    37. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Does intraday technical analysis in the U.S. equity market have value?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-210, March.
    38. Hegde, Shantaram P. & McDermott, John B., 2004. "The market liquidity of DIAMONDS, Q's, and their underlying stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1043-1067, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:675-685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.