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Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later

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  • Burton G. Malkiel
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    Abstract

    In recent years financial economists have increasingly questioned the efficient market hypothesis. But surely if market prices were often irrational and if market returns were as predictable as some critics have claimed, then professionally managed investment funds should easily be able to outdistance a passive index fund. This paper shows that professional investment managers, both in The U.S. and abroad, do not outperform their index benchmarks and provides evidence that by and large market prices do seem to reflect all available information. Copyright 2005 by the Eastern Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal The Financial Review.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 (02)
    Pages: 1-9

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:40:y:2005:i:1:p:1-9

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    Web page: http://www.easternfinance.org/
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    Cited by:
    1. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Thomas Stöckl, 2010. "The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 445-462, April.
    2. Thomas St?ckl & Michael Kirchler, 2010. "Trading strategies and trading profits in experimental asset markets with cumulative information," Working Papers 2010-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    3. McSweeney, Brendan, 2009. "The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 835-848, August.
    4. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    5. Tomáš Buus, 2012. "What is Self-Influential Economic Theory?," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(1), pages 28-40.
    6. James Crotty, 2011. "The Realism of Assumptions Does Matter: Why Keynes-Minsky Theory Must Replace Efficient Market Theory as the Guide to Financial Regulation Policy," Working Papers wp255, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Shu-Heng Chen & Sai-Ping Li, 2011. "Econophysics: Bridges over a Turbulent Current," Papers 1107.5373, arXiv.org.
    8. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    9. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2010. "Introducing Anthropological Foundations of Economic Behavior, Organization, and Control," MPRA Paper 22921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kei Takeuchi & Akimichi Takemura & Masayuki Kumon, 2011. "New Procedures for Testing Whether Stock Price Processes are Martingales," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 67-88, January.
    11. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
    12. Osamah AlKhazali, 2011. "Does infrequent trading make a difference on stock market efficiency?: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 96-110, June.
    13. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.
    14. Majumder, Debasish, 2013. "Towards an efficient stock market: Empirical evidence from the Indian market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 572-587.
    15. JUNQUÉ DE FORTUNY, Enric & DE SMEDT, Tom & MARTENS, David & DAELEMANS, Walter, 2012. "Design and Evaluation of Empirical Models for Stock Price Prediction," Working Papers 2012017, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    16. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine H., 2013. "Patterns in stock market movements tested as random number generators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 122-132.

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