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Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

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  • Michael D. McKenzie
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    Abstract

    The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.

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    File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=968M853Q32868K77
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (August)
    Pages: 46-73

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    Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:4:p:46-73

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    Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

    Related research

    Keywords: emerging markets; stock market predictability; technical trading strategies;

    References

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    1. Gencay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Olsen, Richard & Pictet, Olivier, 2003. "Foreign exchange trading models and market behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 909-935, April.
    2. Ki-Yeol Kwon & Richard Kish, 2002. "Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 639-653.
    3. Allaudeen Hameed & Yuanto Kusnadi, 2002. "Momentum Strategies: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 383-397.
    4. Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
    5. Parisi, Franco & Vasquez, Alejandra, 2000. "Simple technical trading rules of stock returns: evidence from 1987 to 1998 in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 152-164, September.
    6. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    7. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," NBER Working Papers 2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November.
    9. Chakravarty, Sugato & Chiyachantana, Chiraphol N. & Jiang, Christine, 2004. "The Choice of Trading Venue and Relative Price Impact of Institutional Trading: ADRs versus the Underlying Securities in their Local Markets," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1172, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    10. Nam, Kiseok & Washer, Kenneth M. & Chu, Quentin C., 2005. "Asymmetric return dynamics and technical trading strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 391-418, February.
    11. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    12. Neely, Christopher J., 2003. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-87.
    13. McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2005. "Modeling conditional return autocorrelation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 23-42.
    14. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    15. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
    16. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
    17. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Julian Andrada-Felix & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, 2002. "Further evidence on technical trade profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 827-832.
    18. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October.
    19. Hameed, Allaudeen & Ting, Serena, 2000. "Trading volume and short-horizon contrarian profits: Evidence from the Malaysian market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 67-84, March.
    20. Kwon, Ki-Yeol & Kish, Richard J., 2002. "A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) using NYSE and NASDAQ indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 611-631.
    21. Ratner, Mitchell & Leal, Ricardo P. C., 1999. "Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1887-1905, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hugo Tak-Sang, IP & Terence Tai-Leung, Chong, 2006. "Do Momentum-based Strategies Work in Emerging Currency Markets?," Departmental Working Papers _181, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    2. Lin, William & Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2010. "Does trading remove or bring frictions?," MPRA Paper 37285, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2011.
    3. Lin, William & Tsai, Shih-Chuan & Sun, David, 2010. "Search costs and investor trading activity: evidences from limit order book," MPRA Paper 37284, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2011.

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