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Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

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  • Michael D. McKenzie
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    Abstract

    The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.

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    File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=968M853Q32868K77
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (August)
    Pages: 46-73

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    Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:4:p:46-73

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    Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

    Related research

    Keywords: emerging markets; stock market predictability; technical trading strategies;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Julian Andrada-Felix & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, 2002. "Further evidence on technical trade profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 827-832.
    2. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2005. "Modeling conditional return autocorrelation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 23-42.
    4. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Christian González-Martel* & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on arifitial neural networks : evidence from the Madrid stock market," Working Papers 99-07, FEDEA.
    5. Sugato Chakravarty & Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana & Christine Jiang, 2011. "The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets," Working Papers 1010, Purdue University, Department of Consumer Sciences.
    6. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    7. Ratner, Mitchell & Leal, Ricardo P. C., 1999. "Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1887-1905, December.
    8. Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
    9. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    10. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
    11. Nam, Kiseok & Washer, Kenneth M. & Chu, Quentin C., 2005. "Asymmetric return dynamics and technical trading strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 391-418, February.
    12. Gencay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Olsen, Richard & Pictet, Olivier, 2003. "Foreign exchange trading models and market behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 909-935, April.
    13. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," NBER Working Papers 2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kwon, Ki-Yeol & Kish, Richard J., 2002. "A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) using NYSE and NASDAQ indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 611-631.
    15. Hameed, Allaudeen & Ting, Serena, 2000. "Trading volume and short-horizon contrarian profits: Evidence from the Malaysian market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 67-84, March.
    16. Allaudeen Hameed & Yuanto Kusnadi, 2002. "Momentum Strategies: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 383-397.
    17. Ki-Yeol Kwon & Richard Kish, 2002. "Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 639-653.
    18. Neely, Christopher J., 2003. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-87.
    19. Parisi, Franco & Vasquez, Alejandra, 2000. "Simple technical trading rules of stock returns: evidence from 1987 to 1998 in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 152-164, September.
    20. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    21. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ip, Hugo Tak-Sang, 2009. "Do momentum-based strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 479-493, September.

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