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Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?

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  • Tajaddini, Reza
  • Crack, Timothy Falcon

Abstract

We appear to be the first to present correctly calculated results for the profitability of emerging currency momentum strategies using a long time series and a good cross-sectional sample. Using a 1985–2009 sample period and six emerging currencies, we find that long-short momentum strategies gained about 1–3% per annum after actual transaction costs. These profits declined through time (both economically and statistically), however, with most of our strategies losing money after transaction costs during the last five years of our sample. These results are similar to, though slightly more volatile in the cross section, than those published for major currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:3:p:521-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.02.002
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    3. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 67-76.
    4. Zhuang, Chunjuan, 2018. "Improving performance of exchange rate momentum strategy using volatility information," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 741-753.
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Can technical trading beat the foreign exchange market in times of crisis?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Chen, Miao-Ling, 2021. "Currency momentum strategies based on the Chinese Yuan: Timing of foreign exchange volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    8. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 14-16.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging currencies; Momentum strategy; Transaction costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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