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Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options

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  • MAXIME CHARLEBOIS
  • STEPHEN SAPP
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    Abstract

    Although the foreign exchange market is believed to be one of the most efficient financial markets in the world, there is significant evidence that technical analysis is profitable in this market. In this study we investigate the ability of information from the options market to supplement the commonly used information on past prices to predict temporal patterns in foreign exchange returns. We find that strategies using information from at-the-money options were more consistently profitable than the commonly used strategies based on only historical spot exchange rates (past prices). Consequently, options appear to contain information regarding future spot exchange rate movements. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00032.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2-3 (03)
    Pages: 443-470

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    Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:2-3:p:443-470

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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    1. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Danielsen, Bartley R. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2001. "Why Do Option Introductions Depress Stock Prices? A Study of Diminishing Short Sale Constraints," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 451-484, December.
    4. Stephan, Jens A & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. " Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 191-220, March.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August.
    7. Raman Kumar & Atulya Sarin & Kuldeep Shastri, 1998. "The Impact of Options Trading on the Market Quality of the Underlying Security: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 717-732, 04.
    8. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
    9. Bhattacharya, Mihir, 1987. "Price Changes of Related Securities: The Case of Call Options and Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. " Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-57, September.
    11. Kumar, Raman & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1992. " The Behavior of Option Price around Large Block Transactions in the Underlying Security," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 879-89, July.
    12. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
    13. Bernd Lucke, 2003. "Are technical trading rules profitable? Evidence for head-and-shoulder rules," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 33-40.
    14. Fedenia, Mark & Grammatikos, Theoharry, 1992. "Options Trading and the Bid-Ask Spread of the Underlying Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 335-51, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.

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