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Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Dueker, Michael J
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This article introduces four models of conditional heteroscedasticity that contain Markov-switching parameters to examine their multiperiod stock-market volatility forecasts as predictions of options-implied volatilities. The volatility model that best predicts the behavior of the options-implied volatilities allows the Student-t degrees-of-freedom parameter to switch such that the conditional variance and kurtosis are subject to discrete shifts. The half-life of the most leptokurtic state is estimated to be a week, so expected market volatility reverts to near-normal levels fairly quickly following a spike.
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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics .
Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 26-34
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:26-34Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2007.
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Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques)
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BAUWENS, Luc & PREMINGER, Arie & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2006.
"Regime switching GARCH models ,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2006011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
[Downloadable!] Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2006.
"Regime switching GARCH models ,"
Cahiers de recherche
06-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
[Downloadable!] Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008.
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