This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Frömmel, Michael

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We investigate the exchange rate volatility of six Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) between 1994 and 2004. The analysis merges two approaches, the GARCH-model (Bollerslev 1986) and the Markov Switching Model (Hamilton 1989). We discover switches between high and low volatility regimes which are consistent with policy settings for Hungary, Poland and, less pronounced, the Czech Republic, whereas Romania and Slovakia do not show a clear picture. Slovenia, finally, shows some kind of anticipation of the wide fluctuation margins in ERM2.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/Forschung/Diskussionspapiere/dp-333.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover with number dp-333.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-333

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Koenigsworther Platz 1, D-30167 Hannover
Phone: (0511) 762-5350
Fax: (0511) 762-5665
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Dietrich, Karl).

Related research
Keywords: CEEC; exchange rate volatility; regime switching GARCH; Markov switching model; transition economies;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eichengreen, Barry, 1999. "Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C1-14, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "EMU entry strategies for the new member states," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 241-246, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Craig Beaumont & Robert J. Corker & Dora M. Iakova & Rachel van Elkan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies - Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ahmet Asici & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 211–228. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Credibility of European Monetary System Interest Rate Policies: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 1-23, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Cai, Jun, 1994. "A Markov Model of Switching-Regime ARCH," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 309-16, July.
  16. Berger, Helge & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  17. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Inci Ötker & Hugh Bredenkamp & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Paul R. Masson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Grace Juhn & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  24. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2003. "Increasing exchange rate volatility during the recent float," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 857-863, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W. J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  27. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4, pages 409-431, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Ãdám Kóbor & István P. Székely, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in EU Accession Countries in the Run-up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 04/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2005. "Credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries: a Markov regime-switching approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 81-89. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  30. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  33. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-52, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  38. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "IGARCH models and structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 765-768, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  41. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  43. Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2001. "Risk Reduction in the EMS? Evidence from Trends in Exchange Rate Properties," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 285-306, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS is also providing many rankings, for example of authors and institutions.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.