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An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility

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Author Info
Berger, Helge
Sturm, Jan-Egbert
Haan, Jakob de

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Abstract

We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once si milarities in the business cycle are taken into account. Comparable results hold for a variant of the model that focuses on nominal rather than real determinants. We also look at the impact of "mistakes" in exchange rate regime choice on actual (nominal) exchange rate volatility. Countries that deviate from the model\rquote s predicted regime by choosing fixed instead of floating exchange rates generally suffer higher exchange rate volatility than other countries having a fixed exchange rate regime. We also investigate the role of such mistakes in within\endash sample episodes of current-account crises.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 263.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_263

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate regime; credibility versus flexibility; central bank independence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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  14. Berger, Helge & Jensen, Henrik & Schjelderup, Guttorm, 2001. "To peg or not to peg?: A simple model of exchange rate regime choice in small economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 161-167, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Grace Juhn & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jacob De Haan & Helge Berger & Erik Van Fraassen, 2001. "How to Reduce Inflation: An Independent Central Bank or A Currency Board? The Experience of the Baltic Countries," LICOS Discussion Papers 9601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 494, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mehmet Guclu, 2008. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 0806, Ege University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Monzur Hossain, 2008. "Currency Regime Choice: A Survey of Empirical Literature," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-11, American International University-Bangladesh, Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Helge Berger & Henrik Jensen & Guttorm Schjelderup, 2001. "To Peg or Not To Peg? A Simple Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice In Small Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Manuela Francisco & Michael Bleaney, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Discipline - Only Hard Pegs Make a Difference," NIPE Working Papers 6/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  9. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Analysis for Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Amalia Morales Zumaquero & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2006. "Macroeconomic Instability in the European Monetary System?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/06, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?," Working Papers 85, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2002. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 175, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Benoit Cœure, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2002-07, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. M. Frömmel, 2007. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/487, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Aasim M. Husain, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," NBER Working Papers 9219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Frank W. Agbola & Chartri Kunanopparat, 2005. "Determinants of exchange rate practices: some empirical evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 807-816, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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