Politics and exchange rate forecasts

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Politics and exchange rate forecasts

Author Info

S. Brock Blomberg
Gregory D. Hess

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models may be due to omission of political factors. We test this hypothesis by including political variables that capture party-specific, election-specific and candidate-specific characteristics. Surprisingly, we find our political model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting at one to twelve month horizons for the pound/dollar, mark/dollar, pound/mark and the trade-weighted dollar, mark, and pound exchange rates.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 96-02.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:96-02

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1 Memorial Drive, Kansas City, MO 64198-0001
Phone: (816) 881-2254
Email:
Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://app.ny.frb.org/cfpicnic/frame1.cfm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Other versions of this item:

Article
- Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 1997. "Politics and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 189-205, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Berger, Helge & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 187-216, November. [Downloadable!]
S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2000. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Working Paper 0016, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
- Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," RES Working Papers 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 203-225, November. [Downloadable!]
Marcel Fratzscher & Livio Stracca, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Iljoong Kim & Inbae Kim, 2005. "Endogenous changes in the exchange rate regime: A bureaucratic incentive model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 339-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John R. Freeman & Jude C. Hays & Helmut Stix, 1999. "Democracy and Markets: The Case of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 39, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? Data contributors to RePEc receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.