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Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America

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Author Info
Ernesto H. Stein
Jeffry Frieden
Piero Ghezzi

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Abstract

This paper explores the impact of political economy factors on exchange rate policy in Latin America. It studies the determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime in Latin America, placing special emphasis on political, institutional and interest group explanations. The presumption is that differences in institutional and political settings, as well as differences in economic structure, can have an effect on the choice of regime and, more generally, on exchange rate policy. In addition to these structural elements, the paper examines whether such political events as elections and changes in government affect the pattern of nominal and real exchange rates.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 3119.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3119

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor?," IMF Working Papers 91/68, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 1997. "Politics and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 189-205, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, January. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mohsin S. Khan & Peter Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries: Some Analytical Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 78, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1994. "The Political Economy of Inflation and Stabilization in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 235-66, January.
  12. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-Rate Commitments," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 71-97, Winter.
  13. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S49-S72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Grace Juhn & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 203-225, November. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matias Vernengo, 2006. "The Political Economy of Monetary Institutions in Brazil: The Limits of the Inflation Targeting Strategy, 1999-2005," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2006_05, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Multiple Key Currencies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp264, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eichengreen, Barry & Taylor, Alan M, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas," CEPR Discussion Papers 3909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2006. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp06-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher Meissner & Nienke Oomes, 2006. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," WEF Working Papers 0009, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Asici, Ahmet Atil & Ivanova, Nadezhda & Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein, & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Working Papers 67, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Sfia Daly, 2007. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: a Probit Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp899, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Aasim M. Husain, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Sanjin Piragic & Kenneth P. Jameson, 2005. "The determinants of Latin American exchange rate regimes," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1465-1474, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Vladimir Klyuev, 2003. "The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (and reneging on) exchange rate regimes," NBER Working Papers 9809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. George Tavlas & Harris Dellas & Alan Stockman, 2008. "The Classification and Perfomance of Alternative Exchange-Rate Systems," Working Papers 90, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Isriya Nitithanprapas & Thomas D. Willett, 2002. "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-22, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
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