IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cem/doctra/767.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Broken promises: regime announcements and exchange rates around elections

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Garofalo
  • Jorge M. Streb

Abstract

We study the relationship between exchange-rate regime announcements and exchange-rate dynamics around government changes by combining the IMF de jure and the Reinhart and Rogoff de facto exchange-rate regime classifications. Using monthly data from Latin American democracies, we do not identify significant exchange-rate depreciations before the change of government in any of the regimes, but we do identify a gradual exchange-rate overvaluation when regimes are fixed inconsistent (i.e., the de jure regime announcement is fixed and differs from the de facto behavior). After the change of government, the overvaluation under fixed-inconsistent regimes is abruptly corrected through significant devaluations. We thus identify a pattern of broken promises by which incumbents delay devaluations until after the change of government under fixed-inconsistent announcements, but not under fixed-consistent ones. Controlling for conditional volatility, we also detect significant “fear of floating” in flexible-inconsistent regimes before the change of government, when electoral stakes are highest.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Garofalo & Jorge M. Streb, 2020. "Broken promises: regime announcements and exchange rates around elections," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 767, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:767
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/767.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    2. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Alexander F. Wagner, 2006. "Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 770-799, June.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    10. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 2004. "Elections and the timing of devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 119-145, May.
    11. S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 203-225, November.
    12. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
    13. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Miss Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/104, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    15. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    16. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2005. "Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 151-176, July.
    17. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
    18. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    19. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    20. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1989. "The Political Economy of Overvaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 850-855, September.
    21. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    22. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    23. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2020. "More effective than we thought: Central bank independence and inflation in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 87-105.
    24. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás Oviedo, 2022. "Deficit fiscal y tipo de cambio fijo: racionalizando una combinacion insostenible," Young Researchers Working Papers 3, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2009. "Words, Deeds And Outcomes: A Survey On The Growth Effects Of Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 139-164, February.
    5. Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The real consequences of policy‐driven exchange rate cycles: A stylized comparison of East Asia and Latin America," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 190-212, March.
    6. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    8. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Nicolás Oviedo, 2022. "Deficit fiscal y tipo de cambio fijo: racionalizando una combinacion insostenible," Young Researchers Working Papers 3, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.
    11. Arslan Razmi, 2018. "Politics-Driven Exchange Rate Cycles : East Asia vs. Latin America," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    13. Christoph Fischer, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Globalization Institute Working Papers 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    15. Christoph Fischer, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Globalization Institute Working Papers 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2005. "Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 151-176, July.
    17. S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 203-225, November.
    18. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
    21. Tamgac, Unay, 2013. "Duration of fixed exchange rate regimes in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-467.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange-rate regimes; exchange-rate overvaluations; electoral cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:767. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.