Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America
AbstractGovernment exchange rate regime choice is constrained by both political and economic factors. One political factor is the role of special interests: the larger the tradable sectors exposed to international competition, the less likely is the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate regime. Another political factor is electoral: as an election approaches, the probability of the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate increases. We test these arguments with hazard models to analyze the duration dependence of Latin American exchange rate arrangements from 1960 to 1999. We find substantial empirical evidence for these propositions. Results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of other economic and political variables, to different time and country samples, and to different definitions of regime arrangement. Controlling for economic factors, a one percentage point increase in the size of the manufacturing sector is associated with a reduction of six months in the longevity of a country’s currency peg. An im pending election increases the conditional likelihood of staying on a peg by about 8 percent, while the aftershock of an election conversely increases the conditional probability of going off a peg by 4 percent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): VIII (2005)
Issue (Month): (November)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Av. Córdoba 374, (C1054AAP) Capital Federal
Phone: (5411) 6314-3000
Fax: (5411) 4314-1654
Web page: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/jae.html
More information through EDIRC
exchange rates; elections;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
- Frieden, Jeffry A., 1997. "Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(02), pages 367-395, June.
- Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 1997.
"Politics and exchange rate forecasts,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 189-205, August.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Broz, J. Lawrence, 2002. "Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 861-887, September.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2004.
"Elections and Exchange Rate Policy Cycles,"
- Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2001. "Elections and Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 435, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Vladimir Klyuev, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/140, International Monetary Fund.
- Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
- repec:idb:brikps:77398 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C. Randall Henning, 1994. "Currencies and Politics in the United States, Germany, and Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 15.
- Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997.
"Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden, 2000. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview," Research Department Publications 3118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 2002. "Political Parties and Monetary Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 803-830, September.
RePEc Biblio mentionsAs found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kato, Isamu & Uctum, Merih, 2008. "Choice of exchange rate regime and currency zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 436-456.
- Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010.
"Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004.
"Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?,"
85, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2005.
- Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2005. "Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?," International Finance 0502001, EconWPA.
- Jorge M. Streb, 2011. "Estabilización económica e incentivos políticos," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 461, Universidad del CEMA.
- Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 272, OECD Publishing.
- Sébastien Wälti, 2005.
"The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes,"
Trinity Economics Papers
2000518, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS.
- Fernández-Albertos, José, 2012. "Exchange rate regime preferences of the international sector. Firm-level evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 26-30.
- Walter, Stefanie, 2008. "A New Approach for Determining Exchange-Rate Level Preferences," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(03), pages 405-438, July.
- Bodea, Cristina, 2010. "The political economy of fixed exchange rate regimes: The experience of post-communist countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, June.
- Raul Razo-Garcia, 2011. "The Duration of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Controls," Carleton Economic Papers 11-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Oct 2011.
- Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras & Helen Popper, 2012. "Explaining Shifts in Exchange Rate Regimes," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1312, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Pathak, Parag & Tirole, Jean, 2006. "Speculative Attacks and Risk Management," IDEI Working Papers 438, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2007. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 656, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Baldwin, Richard, 2010.
"Sequencing regionalism: Theory, European practice, and lessons for Asia,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Baldwin, Richard E., 2011. "Sequencing Regionalism: Theory, European Practice, and Lessons for Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 80, Asian Development Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valeria Dowding).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.