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Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent

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Abstract

A considerable literature has examined the causes, consequences, and policy responses to surges in international capital flows. A related strand of papers has attempted to catalog current account reversals and capital account "sudden stops." This paper offers an encompassing approach with an algorithm cataloging capital inflow bonanzas in both advanced and emerging economies during 1980-2007 for 181 countries and 1960-2007 for a subset of 66 economies from all regions. In line with earlier studies, global factors, such as commodity prices, international interest rates, and growth in the world’s largest economies, have a systematic effect on the global capital flow cycle. Bonanzas are no blessing for advanced or emerging market economies. In the case of the latter, capital inflow bonanzas are associated with a higher likelihood of economic crises (debt defaults, banking, inflation and currency crashes). Bonanzas in developing countries are associated with procyclical fiscal policies and attempts to curb or avoid an exchange rate appreciation - very likely contributing to economic vulnerability. For the advanced economies, the results are not as stark, but bonanzas are associated with more volatile macroeconomic outcomes for GDP growth, inflation, and the external accounts. Slower economic growth and sustained declines in equity and housing prices follow at the end of the inflow episode.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6996.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6996

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Related research
Keywords: capital inflows; commodity prices; financial crises; procyclical policies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, April. [Downloadable!]
  3. Irina Tytell & Selim Elekdag & Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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