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Elections and the Timing of Devaluations

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Author Info
Ernesto H. Stein
Jorge M. Streb

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Abstract

This paper presents a rational political budget cycle model for an open economy, in which devaluations are delayed in the pre-election period so as to increase the electoral chances of the party in office. By concentrating on closed economies, previous political cycle models had overlooked the influence of elections on the behavior of exchange rates. Voter uncertainty is introduced in two different dimensions. Not only are voters uncertain regarding the competency of the incumbent, but tey also ignore the degree to which the incumbent is opportunistic.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4164.

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Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4164

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ernesto Stein and Jorge Streb., 1994. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-039, University of California at Berkeley.
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  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Credibility and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 542-550, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden, 2000. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview," RES Working Papers 3118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eliana Cardoso, 1991. "From Inertia to Megainflation: Brazil in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 3585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  15. Juan P. Nicolini, 1993. "More on the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 56, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe Larraín, 2003. "¿Qué Sabemos Realmente sobre las Crisis Cambiarias?," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 656-667. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marco Antonio Cesar Bonomo & Maria Cristina Trindade Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: an Empirical Assessment," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 53(4), April. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rodríguez, Javier & Santiso, Javier, 2008. "Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 12907, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Piero Ghezzi & Ernesto Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 2000. "Real exchange rate cycles around elections," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 174, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2007. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 656, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  9. Vladimir Klyuev, 2003. "The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jorge M. Streb, 1999. "Reelection or term limits? The short and the long view of economic policy," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 144, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," RES Working Papers 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jorge M. Streb, 2001. "Signaling in Political Cycles. How far are you willing to go?," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 193, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Serven, Luis & Frankel, Jeffrey & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Verifying exchange rate regimes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2397, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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