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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

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Author Info
Philippe Aghion () (Harvard University)
Philippe Bacchetta () (Study Center Gerzensee)
Romain Ranciere () (International Monetary Fund)
Kenneth Rogoff () (Harvard University)

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Abstract

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignifcant.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 06.02.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0602

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  2. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2008. "Cost of Holding Excess Reserves: The Indian Experience," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 206, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "International Reserves Management and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 12734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Paper Series 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," NBER Working Papers 12363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2007. "Words, deeds, and outcomes: A survey on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 07.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hoffmann, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2008. "Integration of financial markets and national price levels: the role of exchange rate volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi., 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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