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The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Ricardo Hausmann
Ugo Panizza
Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

This paper documents large cross-country differences in the long run volatility of the real exchange rate. In particular, it shows that the real exchange rate of developing countries is approximately three times more volatile than the real exchange rate in industrial countries. The paper tests whether this difference in volatility can be explained by the fact that developing countries face larger shocks (both real and nominal) and recurrent currency crises or by different elasticities to these shocks. It finds that the magnitude of the shocks and the differences in elasticities can only explain a small part of the difference in RER volatility between developing and industrial countries. Results from ARCH estimations confirm that there is a substantial difference in long term volatilities between these two sets of countries and indicate that there is also a much higher persistence of deviations of the variance of the RER from its long run value when the economy suffers shocks of various kinds.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10751.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10751

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Wu, Yangru, 1996. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonstationary? Evidence from a Panel-Data Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Shelley, Gary & Wallace, Frederick, 2007. "Co-movements in international dollar price levels," MPRA Paper 4133, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olimov, Ulugbek & Sirajiddinov, Nishanbay, 2008. "The Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignments on Foreign Trade Flows in Uzbekistan," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia & Andrea L. Waddle, 2007. "Exchange rates and business cycles across countries," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 57-76. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Bleaney, 2008. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 135-146, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael Bleaney, . "Fundamentals And Exchange Rate Volatility," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," CEPR Discussion Papers 6513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are Capital Flows so much more Volatile in Emerging than in Developed Countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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