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Growth Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime and the Capital Account Openness in A Crisis-Prone World Market: A Nuanced View

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Author Info
Razin, Assaf
Rubinstein, Yona

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Abstract

It has been a remarkably difficult empirical task to identify clear-cut real effects of exchange-rate regimes on the open economy. Similarly, no definitive view emerges as to the aggregate effects of capital account liberalizations. The main hypothesis of the Paper is that a direct and an indirect effect of balance-of-payments policies, geared toward exchange rate regimes and capital account openness, exert a confounding overall influence on output growth, in the presence of sudden-stop crises. A direct channel works through the trade and financial sectors, akin to the optimal currency area arguments. An indirect channel works through the probability of a sudden-stop crisis. The empirical analysis disentagles these conflicting effects and demonstrates that: (i) the balance-of-payments policies significantly affect the probability of crises, and the crisis probability, in turn, negatively affects output growth; (ii) controlling for the crisis probability in the growth equation, the direct effect of balance-of-payments policies is large. Domestic price crises (high inflation above a 20% threshold) affect growth only indirectly, through their positive effect on the probability of sudden-stop crises.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4475.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4475

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Related research
Keywords: capital account openness; domestic price crisis; exchange rate regime; sudden stop crisis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Kaushik Basu, 2003. "Globalization and the Politics of International Finance: The Stiglitz Verdict," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 885-899, September.
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  3. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kaplan, Ethan & Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization, Growth and Crises," NBER Working Papers 10293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Arteta, Carlos & Eichengreen, Barry & Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More Than it Hurts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1260, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2006. "Do Workers Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0714, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2005. "Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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