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Do Workers Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?

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Author Info
Matteo Bugamelli
Francesco Paternò

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Abstract

The paper combines the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economieswith that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers'remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this standsin the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared to other private capital flows:these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies,might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets anddeveloping economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment. We find that remittancescan indeed have such a beneficial effect. In particular, we show that a high level of remittances, as aratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP)and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly,for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and theprobability of current account reversals. Our results point also to a threshold effect of remittances: themechanisms just described are, in fact, much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of GDP.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0714.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0714

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Related research
Keywords: current account reversals; workers’ remittances; international reserves; external debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert E. Lipsey & Robert C. Feenstra & Carl H. Hahn & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 307-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alexandra Cox Edwards & Manuelita Ureta, 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and Schooling: Evidence from El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 9766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2004. "Growth Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime and the Capital-Account Openness in A Crisis-Prone World Market: A Nuanced View," NBER Working Papers 10555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Yang, Dean, 2005. "International migration, human capital, and entrepreneurship : evidence from Philippine migrants'exchange rate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3578, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. McCormick, Barry & Wahba, Jackline, 2001. "Overseas Work Experience, Savings and Entrepreneurship amongst Return Migrants to LDCs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 164-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2005. "The Economics of Migrants’ Remittances," IZA Discussion Papers 1531, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Adams, Richard H. Jr., 2004. "Remittances and poverty in Guatemala," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3418, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2006. "Workers’ Remittances and International Risk-Sharing," Working Papers 06-19, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Toxopeus, Helen S. & Lensink, Robert, 2007. "Remittances and Financial Inclusion in Development," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment - insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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